Will climate change allow India to hold another election in summer months?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, May 6

Amid the extreme heatwave sweeping across large parts of India during the ongoing election process and dropping voting percentages, the big question is whether climate change will allow India to hold another election in the acutely hot summer months in 2029. 

Climate and local weather systems are playing an important role in the ongoing Indian elections, say weather experts, adding that it has been the “warmest decade on record with temperatures rising each year”.

“The country is grappling with record-setting heatwaves where 90.7 million people are expected to vote. April has already set new trends with one of the longest spells of heatwave extending up to 15 days,” they add.

The NOAA has warned that 2024 has a one-in-three chance of hitting even higher temperatures, and a 99 per cent chance that it would rank among the top five warmest years in human history.

The solution-can India adjust the election process?

As per former Chief Election Commissioner O P Rawat, there is a six-month window to hold Parliamentary elections.  

“For the current tenure, elections had to be held between December 17, 2023 and June 16, 2024. However, since state assembly elections were scheduled in November and December, Parliamentary elections are usually conducted after a gap of at least two-three months. Therefore, union elections 2024 were announced in March,” he explains.

To avoid such a situation in future, the election commission must call for an all-party meet where it can collectively agree on delaying the state elections by two months and hold the Parliamentary elections during the six-month window, he says.

“Now for the next general elections in 2029, the window falls between January 1 and June 30. Spring season (February and March) is the best time to hold the elections. Or else, there should be an amendment in the law that empowers the Election Commission to conduct a state assembly election a little earlier,” he adds

According to former Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa, weather conditions are always taken into account to avert major disruption.

“There are mitigation measures which are taken well beforehand, like arrangements for making people stand in queue in cool places and availability of drinking water. There is a provision by which the Election Commission of India can conduct elections anytime in 180 days but they have to be extremely careful that the term of the government is not curtailed even by a day.

“Another problem is that the month of February-March is exam time in schools and colleges so one cannot disrupt the academic cycle as well. Maximum precautions are taken to minimise the extremes. However, one may consider this, if (temperatures) continue to increase,” he says

Reasons for increase in temperatures

The temperature of 37°C is commonly used as a threshold for dangerous levels of heat in coastal areas, accounting for coinciding humidity levels.  

According to US research organisation Climate Central, 36 out of 51 major Indian cities had three or more days above the 37°C threshold since voting started while 18 cities experienced above 40°C for more than three days in April.

The reasons for the increase in temperatures include the absence of pre-monsoon showers and thunderstorms.

There is a cumulative countrywide deficit of 20 per cent pre-monsoon rainfall.

Scientists explain that the effects of human-caused climate change will be intensified by El Niño because increased global temperatures are associated with increasing extreme weather events. Therefore, coinciding effects of rising temperatures and El Niño are predicted to induce record-breaking spikes in global temperatures.

“The El Niño in 2015 which led to 2016 being the hottest year on record, while the super El Niño in 2023 superseded the previous one as the warmest year,” they add.

The IMD adds that the persistence of anticyclones over Oman and adjoining areas, and parts of peninsular India impacted the formation of any weather systems, therefore sea breeze was cut-off over eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal, leading to soaring temperatures.

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