Defending 32 seats, more at stake for BJP

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, April 11

The BJP today defended 32 seats among the 91 constituencies that voted for the next Lok Sabha. Of these, 16 were in the crucial Hindi heartland — Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Bihar — states that the saffron party swept in the 2014 elections, riding high on the Modi “wave”.

Political observers believe that the “situation as on date is open-ended”. In case the BSP-SP-RLD ‘Mahagathbandhan’ does manage to upset the BJP applecart in the eight western UP seats of phase-1, it could have a rippling effect in the rest of the state that played a pivotal role in the saffron victory in 2014.

The situation may repeat itself in other states with multiple-phase elections where the BJP and allies did extremely well last time like Maharashtra and Bihar.

In Maharashtra which almost witnessed a one-sided contest in 2014 with the BJP and ally Shiv Sena sweeping it all, the saffron party today defended five seats.

However, a reverse situation in states like West Bengal and Odisha — where the BJP is hoping to strike gains to offset expected losses from the Hindi heartland — can help it consolidate gains from these uncharted terrains.

The general belief is that polling trends and feedback from phase-1 will be carried forward, setting the tone in other phases. This may happen not just in that particular state but adjoining areas as well. 

Notably, all political parties and independent observers collect and analyse trends after the polling gets over for their reference. 

In addition to the three of the 42 seats it currently holds in Telangana and Andhra, the BJP was today defending 29 out of the remaining 49 seats, the majority being in Bihar, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. In 2014, the BJP scored a perfect five in Uttarakhand.