Dealing with the Taliban

The path to peace has seldom been as tenuous. In the wake of the week-long ‘reduction in violence’ between the Taliban, the United States and Afghan security forces, the stage is set for a peace deal between the Taliban and the US, leading to the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the fulfilment of President Donald Trump’s major campaign promise, bolstering the prospects of a second term for him. The future is fraught with uncertainties. The government in Kabul had primarily been a bystander in the talks. The Taliban, who control most of the country outside the capital, have been dismissive of the government’s legitimacy. The coming days will test the alliances between various factions, something that has an inordinately large role in Afghan social and political life.

Historically, India had a strong relationship with Afghanistan and has, indeed, been involved in various infrastructure and humanitarian projects. However, it finds itself without a seat at the table in the talks that determine the country’s future. While Pakistan, too, was not part of the discussions, its role in the creation and nurturing of the Taliban leadership is well established. While the Taliban have made reassuring noises, the apprehension of an increase in militant penetration into India is well-founded.

Peace in Afghanistan and the prosperity of its people are in India’s interest. However, the nature of the government in Kabul and its attitude towards India is a significant concern. Afghanistan under the Taliban will continue to impact India’s security environment, and it would be necessary for the South Block to engage with the leadership in a meaningful manner. At the moment, the lack of boots on the ground is telling. India needs to ramp up its engagement with the country and its people. The challenging post-US scenario in Afghanistan will require pragmatic thinking and nimbleness as new players emerge.  

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