The no-confidence motion

Congress leader Sonia Gandhi could be badly off the mark for the second time in her political life on the numbers game in the Lok Sabha. Once in 1999, she had the self-assurance to claim the support of 272 members without undergoing the formal obligation of seeking support from potential allies. But not a single “migratory bird” flew to the Congress camp and Vajpayee’s deft handling of the Kargil conflict allowed him to consolidate political capital to shut the door on a Congress government for the next five years. This time, the numbers certainly do not favour the Opposition nor will they swell drastically to cause a missed beat in the BJP camp. This motion will bring the same limited advantages as the ones brought by an emasculated Opposition during the Congress’ heyday.

The BJP is not resting on the oars of its comfortable majority. Like every major contestation since 2014, PM Modi and Amit Shah have injected an edge in this one too. That may be a blessing: the BJP’s scrounging for votes should expose the Potemkin opposition — like the meek submission of the Shiv Sena after an Amit Shah phone call — or call the bluff of the rebels-in-the-making such as Union minister Upendra Kushwaha. It is also the time when the Yashwant Sinhas and Kirti Azads need to give up their dual lives. Similarly, the positions taken on the vote will enlighten Congress and its dozen partners about the preferred line-up of the AIADMK, TRS, BJD and others for the 2019 elections.

The excitement will be confined to the margin of victory. But the BJP needs to be circumspect about the subterranean signalling from the Opposition’s attempts to paint a sorry picture about its handling of cow-related lynchings, the bleak foreign affairs record and atrocities against women and Dalits. In 2003, the false confidence from Vajpayee government’s unchallenged clearance of the no-confidence motion brought about its Waterloo a year later. Modi may vault higher but must avoid the hubris of superciliousness, for there is much in India that needs fixing and arrogance is currently the only chink in the BJP’s armour.