Dalit, Muslim votes poised to split in Maharashtra

Shiv Kumar
Tribune News Service
Mumbai, March 22

The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party-led coalition in Maharashtra is facing a tough challenge to woo Muslim and Dalit voters, who had shifted away from the combine during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which includes the Owaisi brothers’ AIMIM and the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party, threatens to eat into the votes of these two communities, according to political observers.

Both the groups have announced plans to field candidates in all the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Ambedkar has been on a comeback trail after more than a decade after he organised a massive protest last year following the attacks on Dalits at Bhima-Koregaon near Pune. The VBA floated by him claims to represent several OBC groups in addition to Dalits and Muslims. “We represent more than 40 per cent of Maharashtra’s population,” Ambedkar said at a rally in Akola earlier this week.

Ambedkar, who won from Akola in 1999 but subsequently lost all elections from here, is expected to contest again from here. He has also threatened to challenge Congress leader Sushil Kumar Shinde from Solapur, a reserved seat.

The VBA’s rallies have been attracting good crowds with nearly 3 lakh people attending Ambedkar’s rally at Mumbai’s Shivaji Park last month.

Leaders of the OBC community say there is a Dalit-OBC consolidation happening in Maharashtra especially after the Congress and the NCP joined hands with the BJP and the Shiv Sena to pass the legislation for Maratha reservation in the state. “Though the government has given the Marathas a separate category for obtaining reservations, there is fear among the OBCs and Dalits that the community will eat into the benefits of these communities,” says Chandrakant Bavare of the OBC
Sangharsh Samanvay Samiti.

Bavare adds that several OBC groups are looking at bodies like VBA which is bringing them together with Dalits and Muslims.

On the other hand, the SP and BSP combine are tapping into the North Indian migrant voters who account for nearly 30 per cent of the electorate in Mumbai. North Indians are also a big presence in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Pune and Nashik cities.

For the record though, the Congress and the NCP are putting on a brave front. “Prakash Ambedkar could not win his own seat in the last three elections,” says Congress spokesperson Sachin Sawant.

The party’s leaders also insist that Ambedkar has been propped up by the BJP-Sena combine to cut into the votes of the Congress-NCP combine.

As for the SP-BSP alliance, Sawant says the minority voter will vote tactically to defeat the BJP this time and not waste his vote.