In 2014, pollsters got trend right but not margin

New Delhi, May 20 

As the country dissects the exit polls predicting that the NDA will come back to power, a look at the pollsters’ 2014 prediction shows that they got the trend right, but not the scale of victory for the BJP-led alliance.

Pollsters did not fare well in 2004 and 2009 with a majority of them getting it wrong. In 2004, the UPA unseated Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA, contrary to what most exit polls predicted, while in 2009, most exit polls forecast a close fight between the NDA and the incumbent UPA, but the latter bettered its previous tally.

Of the seven main pollsters in 2014, the News24-Chanakya proved to be the most accurate, predicting 340 seats for the NDA, which eventually won 336.

The India TV-C Voter exit poll gave a simple majority to the NDA, predicting 289 seats, while ABP Nielson and CNN-IBN CSDS gave 281 and 280 seats respectively to the NDA.

Headlines Today Cicero predicted 272 seats for the NDA, NDTV predicted 279 and Times Now-ORG forecast 249 seats.

For the UPA, Chanakya predicted 70 seats in 2014, which was the closest to the 59 seats the Congress-led alliance got.

The India TV-C Voter exit poll gave 101 to the UPA, while ABP Nielson and CNN-IBN CSDS gave 97 seats to the Congress-led alliance. Headlines Today Cicero predicted 115 seats for the UPA, NDTV predicted 103, and Times Now-ORG forecast 148 seats.

The 2014 polls could not predict the scale of the NDA win, but nearly all of them had got the trend right.

This time, almost all exit polls have predicted a clear win for the NDA and the only variation is on the scale of NDA win. Exit polls by News 18-Ipsos, India Today-Axis and News 24-Chanakya projected 336, 339-368 and 336-364 seats respectively for the NDA, with the BJP tipped to cross the majority on its own.

However, two exit polls — ABP News-Nielsen and Neta-News X — said the ruling alliance might fall short of a majority. ABP News forecast 267 and NewsX 242 seats for the NDA. — PTI 

Satta bazars root for Modi comeback

• Like most pollsters, various ‘satta bazars’ too have stuck to a BJP win in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but expect the party tally to be fewer than predicted in the exit polls
• Satta bazars across various cities expect the BJP to win 238-245 seats in the just-concluded seven-phase elections
• Punters in Rajasthan are betting 242-245 seats for the saffron party out of total 543, while the betting hub in Delhi sees the BJP winning 238-241 seats, same as punters in Mumbai