Population not booming, but in slowdown mode

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 18

Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of the need for smaller families in his Independence Day address, Economic Survey 2018-2019 warned the government of something exactly the opposite – the need to brace for sharper population slowdown.

“India has entered the next stage of demographic transition with population growth set to slow markedly in the next two decades along with a significant increase in the share of working age population which is the so-called demographic dividend phase,” the Survey said.

The Survey used demographic projections to conclude that India needs to start preparing for a stage where more and more states will see falling total fertility rates (TFR) after achieving replacement levels and thus see a transition to ageing societies.

“Southern states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, and Maharashtra are already quite advanced in the demographic transition with their total fertility rate well below replacement level already; more than 10 per cent of the population above the age of 59, at most one third of the population below the age of 20,” said the Survey.

Bihar, UP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are the only major states still at an early stage of demographic transition with high TFRs ranging between 2.5 and 3.1 and these could well be the states the PM had in mind when he flagged smaller families.

But in the overall picture, population control was not the top concern of the Economic Survey which actually showed that population growth rate in India has been slowing in the recent decades and fell from the annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent during 1971 to 1981 to an estimated 1.3 per cent as of 2011-2016.

“All major states have witnessed marked deceleration in population growth during this period and the slowdown in states with historically high population growth is noteworthy. Population as of now is growing at only 1 per cent in southern states, West Bengal, Punjab, Maharashtra, Odisha, Assam and Himachal. A key driver in this trend has been a steady decline in India’s total fertility rate since the mid-1980s,” notes the Survey.

The takeaway from the Survey was not the need for population control at current rate of population decline but a need for India to prepare to meet the challenges of an ageing society.