Road to Opposition unity rutted

Aditi Tandon in New Delhi

It has taken less than a month for the Congress-led opposition’s dream of a pan India anti-BJP alliance to turn sour.  Only on February 13, the eve of the Pulwama terror attack, opposition stalwarts had announced plans to form a pre-poll coalition against the ruling BJP and said they would draft a common minimum programme to delineate their agenda against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The 17th Lok Sabha elections begin on April 11 but the draft CMP is nowhere to be seen. The plan of a Mahagathbandhan against the BJP in major states has fallen by the wayside, with the BSP and the SP announcing unilateral pacts minus the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the Trinamool Congress declaring all 42 candidates in Bengal.

Karnataka and Bihar alliances were also finalised recently following tension over seat-sharing between the Congress and regional players — the RJD in Bihar and the JD(S) in Karnataka. In Delhi, Punjab and Haryana, the potential Congress-AAP understanding is not happening, despite opposition titans like TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and NCP president Sharad Pawar urging the Congress to come around.

UPA-III: Now a post-poll dream

Souring of the opposition alliance began with the 2018 election cycle in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh where the Congress failed to reach a pre-poll understanding with the BSP and the SP. Chiefs of both parties Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav slammed the Congress for its arrogance and snubbed it in UP by going alone in the LS elections. They left only two Gandhi family seats for the grand old party, riling it into a counter-offensive.

In Delhi and Bengal, too, pre-poll pacts failed with the Congress president Rahul Gandhi citing unwillingness of state units to ally with AAP in Delhi and the TMC in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee, TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and Pawar tried till mid-March to persuade the Congress to give and take but the Congress had by then shifted its stance. This shift in Congress plan started in January after the BSP and SP announced the UP alliance. It became pronounced after the Pulwama terror attack and IAF strikes in Pakistan which bumped BJP’s pre-election moods tilting the national narrative towards nationalism — an idea the BJP is aggressively playing now.

This explained the recent Congress moves — the launch of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as general secretary UP east; announcement of UP candidates, including for Badaun, a seat Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav represents in the Lok Sabha; Priyanka’s meeting with  Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad of Bhim Army to Mayawati’s ire; Delhi Congress chief Sheila Dikshit’s snub to AAP alliance and the Bengal Congress’ statement favouring a pact with the Left over the TMC.

On Congress-led UPA side, currently are 15 parties — the NCP and Swabhimani Paksha (Maharashtra); JD(S) (Karnataka); NC (J&K); DMK (Tamil Nadu); RJD, Loktantrik Janata Dal, Hindustan Awam Party and RLSP (Bihar); JMM, RJD and JVM (Jharkhand), IUML and Kerala Congress (Kerala) and AIUDF in Assam. The Left has not been accommodated in opposition alliances in Bihar or Jharkhand and talks in Bengal are on a shaky ground.

Arrogance or strategy?

Notwithstanding the opposition pressure to give in to dominant regional players, the Congress has made up its mind to ensure that its electoral relevance is not sacrificed at the altar of anti-BJP coalitions. “We respect the BSP and SP’s decision in UP but we also have an obligation to our people,” Congress media head Randeep Surjewala says on the breakdown of UP alliance as the Congress plans to contest majority of the 80 seats there.

“Our first priority is to keep the cadre alive and strike a balance between party prospects in 2019 and our future in terms of relevance. Besides, post-poll alliance possibilities are always open,” Congress spokesperson and member, AICC publicity committee for LS polls Jaiveer Shergill says. The grand old party appears progressively convinced that the best way forward is to keep afloat for a longer haul rather than commit political suicide for an immediate expediency.

Congress veteran and former Law Minister Ashwani Kumar reasons, “Forging of alliances is a critical part of the winning strategy considering the arithmetic of the poll. It is self-evident that the Congress needs to avoid split in the anti-BJP vote. At the same time, it needs to ensure that its political presence in various states does not shrink further.” Initial signals from the opposition camp are not happy as Sharad Pawar and Mayawati have both pulled out of the LS fray signalling low confidence. Both have, however, kept the post-poll options open.

The strategy

Congress veterans are working overtime to prevent the BJP from hijacking the nationalistic narrative dominating electorate’s mindscapes post-Pulwama and IAF strikes in Pakistan.

A Congress Working Committee resolution recently expressed solidarity with the armed forces and accused PM Modi of exploiting national security to deflect attention from his failures on the governance front. The Congress’ plan is to pull the attention back on the BJP’s “failures on jobs, agriculture, women’s safety, national security and economy.”

Accordingly, the March 12 CWC resolution said, “The Congress party expresses its strong disappointment that the Prime Minister is cynically exploiting the issue of national security, on which we are all united, to divert attention from his colossal failures, bogus claims and persistent falsehoods.”

The other Congress plank against the BJP is corruption, with the party determined to hammer Rahul Gandhi’s “chowkidar chor hai” line despite BJP’s massive counters. The PM recently prefixed “chowkidar” to his Twitter name so did all the ministers. PM even addressed watchmen across the country launching #Mai Bhi Chowkidar Twitter movement which Congress media strategists are challenging with #BJP Ke Sab Chowkidar Chor Hain hashtag.

Some anti-BJP slogans the Congress will use are “Pehle lade the goron se; ab ladenge choron se”; and “Naa jawaanon ki, na kisaanon ki, BJP hai baeimanoon ki.”

The golden handshakes

• Bihar (40 seats): RJD 20, Congress 9, RLSP and HAM 3 each; RJD to spare one seat for CPI-ML; LJD Leader Sharad Yadav to fight on RJD symbol; no seat left for the CPI.
• Maharashtra (48 seats): Congress 24, NCP 20, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana 2 and Bahujan Vikas Agadhi 1 and Independent 1. 
• Tamil Nadu (39 LS seats) plus Puducherry (one seat): DMK 31, Congress 9.  
• Jharkhand (14 LS seats): Congress 7, JMM 4 JVM 2, RJD 1.
• Karnataka (28 seats): Congress 20, JDS 8.
• J&K (6 seats): Congress (2), NC (One), Friendly (2), Ladakh seat to be decided. 
• Kerala (20 seats): Congress 16, IUML 2; Kerala Congress (M) and RSP one each.