US, China weakening, but India on firm footing: OECD

London, October 8

India is witnessing “firming” growth prospects even as most of the major economies, including the US, are seeing signs of moderation in growth, according to Paris-based think tank OECD.

The latest projections come at a time when the global economy as a whole is grappling with uncertainties, especially in the wake of Chinese slowdown.

While India is poised for better growth prospects, loss of “growth momentum” is anticipated in the UK and the US albeit from relatively high levels, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said today.

It noted that there are signs of moderating growth outlook in most major economies.

The readings are based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) that are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

“Among the major emerging economies, CLIs continue to point to a loss of growth momentum in China, and weak growth momentum in Brazil and Russia. Firming growth is expected in India,” OECD said. India’s CLI inched up to 99.9 in August from 99.8 recorded in July.

Last week, International Monetary Fund’s chief Christine Lagarde said global growth would likely be weaker this year with only a modest acceleration expected in 2016 but India remains a bright spot.

“India remains a bright spot. China is slowing down as it rebalances away from export-led growth. Countries such as Russia and Brazil are facing serious economic difficulties. Growth in Latin American countries, in general, continues to slow sharply,” she had said.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley too had said India has the potential to be the bright spot even in somewhat gloomier situation.

However, last month, the RBI revised downwards the GDP forecast for the current financial year (2015-16) to 7.4% from the earlier estimate of 7.6%.

Meanwhile, the think tank said CLI for the OECD area as a whole points to growth easing and signs of a more moderate easing in Canada and Japan.

“In Germany and the euro area as a whole, stable growth momentum is anticipated while in France and Italy the outlook is for firming growth,” OECD noted. — PTI