Free bijli vs ‘national security’

Neerja Chowdhury

Senior political commentator

Till two weeks ago, Arvind Kejriwal was set for a clear win in Delhi, maybe even a sweep. From the way people talked, it seemed that Delhiites had made up their minds to give him another term to carry forward the work he had done. Kaam toh kiya hai, they would say, and their number was not small. Person after person would enumerate what he had done — free water under 20,000 litres, free bijli under 200 units, changes in government schools, mohalla clinics, free bus rides for women, CCTV in colonies for safety.

Many also sympathised with him for another reason. He had got only 18 months to get down to work, after the Supreme Court restored some of his powers. The first three and a half years of his term went in Centre-state spats over Delhi’s powers. Many continue to bet their money on Kejriwal. But the poll discourse has been shifting in the last 10 days. Polarisation is taking place in parts, and some have begun to juxtapose the question of ‘free bijli’ against ‘national security’.

The BJP has introduced ‘Shaheen Bagh’ as its central poll theme around which it is contesting elections, hoping to polarise the situation in the penultimate round before February 8. It started with the exhortation of Amit Shah to press the button so hard that the current would be felt by Shaheen Bagh. This was followed by the young MoS Finance, Anurag Thakur, exhorting crowds to complete the second line of his slogan, Desh ke gaddaron ko, with the crowd adding, Goli maro saalon ko. BJP MLA Parvesh Verma went a step further, threatening there could be rape of women after the election. A young man opened fire at Jamia Millia Islamia and another tried to do so at Shaheen Bagh. Yogi Adityanath pushed ahead with the goli theme in his speeches at rallies in Delhi, accusing Kejriwal of ‘supplying biryani to Shaheen Bagh’!

The BJP is playing on Hindu fears by projecting Shaheen Bagh as an assertion by Muslims, linking it to the ‘tukde-tukde gang’ and to Pakistan. This is ironical because, agree with them or disagree, on the other side are unarmed Muslim women and children, supported by young people, peacefully protesting, holding aloft the Tricolour and the Constitution and asking for their rights under the Constitution. Their fear: if the CAA-NRC is taken to their logical conclusion, they will be in detention camps.

Today, it is one fear pitted against another, and the elections will be decided by how much fear overtakes the bijli-paani narrative.

Will the BJP gain enough votes to be able to make a difference to the actual number of seats it wins or end up just adding to its vote share? Suddenly its disheartened cadres have perked up. Many believe that it has suited the BJP to let the protesters continue to sit at Shaheen Bagh than to engage with them and have them removed or moved to another place where they do not block traffic.

Polarisation has been a tried-and-tested formula deployed by the BJP, when all else fails to yield electoral dividends. It is once again testing the waters in Delhi. If it works in the cosmopolitan Capital of the country, where the voter is mostly urban and educated and not taken in by parties easily, the BJP would have found another potent issue to use for dividends in the elections that follow in the next two years — Bihar (2020), West Bengal (2021) and UP (2022).

Given the economic slowdown — the initial response to the Budget presented by Nirmala Sitharaman is one of disappointment about its ability to generate the much-needed stimulus — the BJP leadership knows it may need other cards, particularly those that are likely to sway people emotionally.

Till about 10 days ago, agencies tracking the Delhi elections saw the AAP leading, with its popularity hovering around 52%, and the BJP this time was way below its core vote which used to linger around 33%. There was also a large chunk of undecided voter — estimated to be around 16% — who the BJP is trying to win to its side. The Congress seemed to be getting squeezed out, but if four-five of its ‘strong’ candidates manage to get through, it will be at the cost of the AAP. This would suit the BJP because it will keep the AAP that much short of the finishing line. The fight in Delhi is clearly between the AAP and the BJP.

Delhi should not have been such a do-or-die battle for the BJP, and as it turns out, the PM is not the main campaigner of the party, as announced earlier. Amit Shah is leading the charge. Delhi accounts for only seven Lok Sabha seats and is not even a full-fledged state. Being the Capital, its importance goes way beyond its size.

It did not warrant the BJP, which is, after all, a mainline party, and the world’s largest political organisation, to resort to the goli rhetoric it deployed this time, which was unprecedented and dangerous. Whether or not it led to the two youngsters brandishing pistols at Jamia Millia or Shaheen Bagh, it can encourage people to take law into their hands. Every election, unfortunately, brings a new political low.

People still want Modi at the Centre, but they are becoming increasingly open to looking at ‘other’ alternatives in states, provided there is a clear leader or a viable opposition. Some also feel that it might be a good idea to rein in the BJP in states and give it a reality check. One of the BJP’s handicaps in Delhi has been the absence of an effective leader to take on Kejriwal.

The possibility of a convincing re-election for Kejriwal acquires importance for another reason. It could make many look at him afresh in the post-Delhi politics, particularly when the Opposition has few figures able to give a ‘takkar’ to the Modi/Shah-led BJP and get the better of it.

The BJP is pulling out all stops to make a reasonable showing, if not attain a victory, to deprive Kejriwal of a near-repeat performance of 2015.

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