Potential of UP arithmetic

Aquarter of a century is a long time to stay estranged. And any rapprochement without a closure, as is the case with the SP and BSP in UP, speaks of more than a hint of desperation. Till the run-up to the 2017 Assembly polls, Mayawati was in no mood to ‘forgive or forget’ the 1993 VIP Guest House incident in Lucknow. But the BSP has been locked out of the power centre in UP for six years and its vote share has steadily declined. The political banishment from Lucknow will last another three years. Such a long period on the bench precludes any division of spoils between Mayawati and Akhilesh: a role in Delhi for one and another for Lucknow.

The dumping of the Congress makes for an interesting reading of tea leaves. Past experience has shown, according to Mayawati, that the Congress cannot transfer its votes. Nothing can be said if the alliance will finally be a big tent that will accommodate the entire secular line-up or the non-Congress part. But the outline of the bi-party pact indicates their game plan of preventing the Congress from becoming the ringmaster by aggregating enough seats from various states to be the largest party. The Congress is welcome to contest all seats where it is BJP’s principal opponent, but the SP-BSP alliance will aim at maximising its pickings from UP to be in a position for better bargaining if secular parties manage to best the BJP in 2019.

The Congress’ exclusion also buries the talk of a nationwide maha-gathbandhan. The electoral canvas may now be dotted by state-level alliances against the BJP with the leftouts in the secular camp providing a rump alternative. On paper, simple arithmetic gives three-fourths of the 80 UP Lok Sabha seats to the SP-BSP. But the postulation sidesteps the likelihood of more cards up the BJP’s sleeve: quota within the SC\OBC quota and, of course, the Ram temple case. What remains to be seen is whether the desperation of the vanquished can match the creativity of the saffron corner.