With exit polls leading to confusion, all eyes now on Tuesday''s results

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, December 10

With the exit polls predicting confusion, all eyes are on December 11 when results will be declared for the Assembly elections to five states.

Whichever way they swing, the results of the “mini general election” will hold important clues for all political parties on trends and messages from the ground, including on much-written-about farmers’ anger and agrarian distress, especially in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Rural distress is said to be a big game changer in the 2019 general election for the BJP, which believes the anger has been whipped up by opposition for political gain to counter the “good work in the sector done by the Modi government”. Also, the allegations it is facing on unemployment.

For regional players, especially fence-sitters (and they include some small partners currently with the BJP-led NDA), Tuesday’s result will provide a clearer picture of the way forward. They will also be barometer of their independent political relevance other than being an alleged ‘vote spoiler’ a ‘Plan B operator’ for main parties—the BJP and the Congress.

For some of the key regional players like the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, they are a test of their standalone negotiating capabilities. For example, in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly, exit polls have given only around five to seven to an interesting alliance between Mayawati-led BSP and breakaway Congress leader Ajit Jogi, providing a third angle to what would otherwise have been a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP.

In the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, an independent BSP has averaged only around two seats in the exit polls. The vote share of “others” in the gamut will be something to watch out for as it will show whether regional players are capable of more other than dividing the anti-BJP votes or hold on their own on the basis of individual relevance in the eventuality of an anti-BJP Third Front taking shape.

Meanwhile, so far as the Congress is concerned, it has a lot more riding on this mini general election than the BJP, which is definitely in a better position to absorb a setback; one, because of an advantageous position at the Centre and two, because of better reach in several states.

If the Congress does not do well now with all the odds visibly stacked against the BJP, the grand old party can kiss goodbye any chances it may be harbouring for 2019. Ground reports suggest better tidings for it, despite the confused exit poll results, though.       

For the grand old party, any recovery from this stage would not just be more difficult, it may also stand to lose much on the negotiation table if it wants to join any anti-BJP grouping. In fact, sources in the BJP say they would rather not do very well in these elections and let the people’s anger, if any, be expended now than carry it forward and manifest later in the general election.