Paris climate talks

The two-week climate change conference in Paris opened on Monday with all the trappings of a conclave of the world’s most powerful persons. There were ritzy country-stalls, coloured brochures, confabulations and sunny optimism.  Everyone agrees on the two broad objectives: try to limit temperature increase to below 2 degree centigrade above the industrial era and allow increased consumption of energy in developing countries. Girding these objectives is the principle of differentiation — developing countries should be treated differently on the key questions of financing the use of environment-friendly technologies and monitoring country-specific pledges.

Six years ago, an attempt to reach an agreement in Copenhagen ended in failure. The North and the South just could not agree how the goal to limit temperature increase was to be achieved. The world learnt its lesson about the limited applicability of a top-down system. This time around, countries have themselves come up with actions they will take after 2020. India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), for instance, is 33 to 35 per cent below the 2005 levels by 2030. Voluntary commitments have set the tone for wholehearted involvement in the collective mission to check global warming. But the difference in priorities of the North and the South, beginning from Rio in 1992, continues.

The North or Annexure I countries have promised $100 billion every year from 2020 but the South already detects a backsliding of commitments. Billionaires have agreed to contribute to a fund to research new technologies but much depends on the fine print. A legally binding agreement is ruled out because Barack Obama will be unable to get it ratified. In its place, developing countries want a monitoring system to cover finance, technology and historical obligation of developed countries. The bonhomie at Paris will disappear when negotiators will get down to brasstacks. The South will have to withstand the pressure to avoid getting shortchanged. This happened earlier at the World Trade Organisation. It was a different world then and in Paris, the South may be able to better countenance the pressure tactics of the North.