Saudi Arabia’s Yemen gamble may define its regional role for years

Riyadh, March 27

Saudi Arabia's campaign to stop the Houthis from ruling over Yemen could define its role in the Middle East for years and shape its regional struggle with the rebels' ally Iran.

Success would establish Riyadh as de facto leader of the region's Sunni states it has pulled together in a complex armed operation, and embolden it to pursue a more assertive stance against what it sees as the expansionist ambitions of its arch rival Shia Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Bahrain.

But failure could hamper Riyadh's ability to persuade allies and neighbours to join it in future ventures and deal a public setback to its new monarch King Salman as well as other senior princes early in his reign.

"This campaign has confirmed that Saudi Arabia is the heavyweight power in the region. But they've taken a risk," said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist from the United Arab Emirates.

"If this thing fails, Iran is going to be much more emboldened and in this region there's usually a zero-sum game between Tehran and Riyadh. This is a test for the new king and Saudi Arabia," said Abdulla.

Riyadh wants to reinstate some stability and its own influence in Yemen by ensuring President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is strong enough to force his opponents to negotiate.

The kingdom's previous experience in fighting the Houthis, during a brief border war in 2009-10, relied on US satellite imagery, while its participation in air strikes against the Islamic State group in Syria has also relied on American command and control.

This time it is not only striking targets across the country from the air without US help, but it is also overseeing operations by allied aircraft, coordinating the role of several naval forces and preparing ground troops.

Riyadh's tough military campaign is matched by an ambitious political plan: to use the air strikes and sustained pressure from a coalition of Arab states and Pakistan to drive the Houthis to the bargaining table and force them to deal. — Reuters