Pakistan heads for polls amid court battles

G Parthasarathy

Chancellor, Jammu Central University, and former High Commissioner to Pakistan

PAKISTAN’s former representative to the United Nations, Maleeha Lodhi, recently noted that an important aim of the country’s military establishment was to ensure that Imran Khan did not return as the Prime Minister. Imran and his wife Bushra have received a 14-year jail sentence in a corruption case and another one over their ‘un-Islamic’ marriage. Imran has also been awarded a 10-year sentence after being found guilty of leaking official secrets.

There is a widespread feeling in Pakistan that Imran would have won had he been allowed to participate in the elections.

The Pakistan army continues to play an important and critical role in the country’s foreign policy and internal affairs. It was in November 2022 that Gen Syed Asim Munir was appointed the army chief. Among his first trips abroad was a visit to Washington DC. His predecessor and mentor, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, had arranged for the supply of Pakistani weapons and ammunition to Ukraine at the US’s behest. The US retains substantial influence in Pakistan, even on issues like developments in Ukraine. This has, however, not affected Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friendship’ with China.

The army chief has played a key role in ensuring that Imran would not be allowed to contest the parliamentary elections. Imran had, after all, spoken rather harshly about the US. Moreover, there has been no love lost between Imran and General Munir, who bears a grudge against him. During his tenure as PM, Imran had removed Munir from the post of ISI chief.

India is not the only country that Pakistan has to worry about today. There are serious friction points now in Islamabad’s relations with its northern and western neighbours, Afghanistan and Iran. In the meantime, Afghanistan is being wooed by China and Iran, while Pakistan wants to throw out millions of Afghan/Pashtun refugees. These refugees are Afghan nationals whom Pakistan had used for its proxy wars in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union and then the US. The net result has been a rise in tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. India’s presence in Afghanistan has been welcomed by Afghans because of its economic assistance, ranging from the supply of wheat to infrastructure development and education.

India was among the countries that attended a conclave organised recently in Kabul by the Taliban with the aim of promoting regional cooperation. The participants included Kazakhstan, Turkey, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Indonesia and Kyrgyzstan. It is imperative that India continues its assistance to Afghanistan. Pakistan can no longer stop or delay such assistance as Indian supplies can be routed through the Chabahar port in Iran, built with Indian cooperation. Meanwhile, the UAE has also been establishing closer cooperation with the Taliban regime.

The February 8 elections will be held in the background of the animosity between Imran and General Munir. Imran has inevitably been subjected to prosecution for serious violations of government regulations. These included making public the contents of a highly classified message from Asad Majeed Khan, Pakistan’s then Ambassador in Washington, about his meeting with a senior State Department official. Imran was both indiscreet and ill-advised to publicise information that was evidently indicative of US policies as well as likes and dislikes in Pakistan. Both Imran and his wife have been tried swiftly and have received jail sentences.

These developments set the stage for a special court in Pakistan to sentence Imran to 10 years in jail. Imran did not, however, refute the charges of violating national security laws. He averred that he owed it to the people of Pakistan to make the contents of the diplomatic cable from Washington public as it involved an alleged American plot to oust him. Interestingly, this was taking place even as an Iranian-flagged fishing vessel, whose crew was entirely Pakistani, was hijacked off the coast of Somalia. The crew was rescued by an Indian Navy warship. Pakistan has remained silent about this incident.

Ever since General Munir assumed office after the ouster of Imran, there have been concerted efforts to ensure that those who were close to or supported the Imran government faced persecution and prosecution. These include his wife and former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, who has been sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment by a special court. Imran is clearly facing the wrath of General Munir.

There is a widespread feeling in Pakistan that Imran would have won had he been allowed to participate in the national elections. In his absence, former PM Nawaz Sharif’s party is expected to win the largest number of seats. While Sharif has invariably held out promises of good relations with India, it would be wise of New Delhi to tread carefully on where both he and the army chief stand on ties with India. While General Bajwa was well disposed towards having good ties with India, General Munir evidently does not share these views of his mentor. The Pakistan establishment, however, fears closer people-to-people contact, trade and economic cooperation with India. It remains to be seen what course Nawaz and General Munir would follow.

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