Tripping on RS aisles

Neerja Chowdhury
Senior Political Commentator 

THE arithmetic was not on the BJP’s side in the Rajya Sabha to get its person elected as the Deputy Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha. Nor for that matter did the numbers add up, counting all its allies in the NDA. That is why the ruling side had shied away from holding the election, to begin with, betraying a nervousness. 

If the Opposition had realised from the start that it did not have the numbers, as it is now trying to make out, it could have made a virtue out of a necessity and agreed to a consensus candidate. In which case, it might have had a say in who finally got elected. At one point, Rajya Sabha  Chairman and Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu spoke about a consensus, but at that stage, the Opposition parties — particularly  Mamata Banerjee — were determined for a contest.  The name of a TMC member was floated as a possible candidate. 

Of course, the BJP had the advantage of being able to notify the election, catching the Opposition by surprise. (By now it should have become wiser to the BJP’s ways,  and put into place its action plan, for whenever the election would be sprung on them.) Another advantage was that it was not by a secret ballot. The non-aligned regional parties, which swung to the ruling side, like the AIADMK, BJD and TRS, may not have wanted to antagonise the Union Government at this juncture for considerations which were political, or  not so political in nature, and particularly when they did not have a direct stake in the election. Several of their members might have voted differently had it been a secret ballot. After all, Harivansh Narayan Singh lost out in the race for the chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, elected by a secret ballot, only a day earlier to TDP nominee CR Ramesh. 

And, of course, the ruling side has the advantage of  instrumentalities of the state at its command to pursue the politics of ‘saam daam dand bhed’, and ‘persuade’ opponents.

But it is not as if the Opposition leaders were unfamiliar with these realities. Besides, they could have tried to breach the NDA. The TDP had, after all, walked over to the opposition side.  The Shiromani Akali Dal was none too  pleased that the BJP did not consider its nominee Naresh Gujral.  There had been speculation that a miffed Janata Dal (U) might return to the mahagathbandhan with Lalu Yadav’s RJD in Bihar. That is why the BJP brass decided to offer it the Deputy Chairperson’s post in order to signal to allies, present and potential, that it was going to take on board their concerns.  Narendra Modi was willing to stoop to conquer and go along with someone like Harivansh, a socialist and a BJP critic of yesteryear. This was a clear shift in strategy, and a climbdown from the high horse it had mounted in recent months. 

The PM himself worked the phones, speaking to Uddhav Thackeray,  Naveen Patnaik, and personally meeting the TRS chief. (Contrast this with Arvind Kejriwal’s wait for a phone call from Rahul Gandhi and his subsequent announcement that AAP would not be part of any alliance in 2019).

When the Opposition started to bestir itself, the game was essentially over. The Congress bigwigs suggested Vandana Chavan’s name — from the NCP and a Maratha — who the Shiv Sena would have found difficult to oppose. But when the NCP leaders got around to working their phones, they were told by Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik that he had already given his word. Had they spoken to him earlier, he might have considered their request! Mamata Banerjee had already cried off, knowing which way the wind was blowing. Finally, BK Hariprasad was left holding the baby.

The moral of the story? There is no one on the Opposition side today who is finally in charge, authorised to go for the kill in the situation as it evolved. This has nothing to do with who could or would be Prime Minister on the Opposition side. It does not have a common prime-ministerial chehra who can take on Narendra Modi in 2019.  This, say Opposition leaders, will be decided after the elections. It is, undoubtedly, a weakness on the Opposition side, particularly when Modi is all set to make 2019 a presidential type ‘Modi versus who’ campaign.    

Even more importantly, the Opposition does not even have the equivalent of a Harkishan Singh Surjeet, AB Bardhan and a post-1991 VP Singh (who after having lost prime ministership in 1990 did not seek it again), as a political wag was quick to point out. These three leaders had played a behind the scenes role — which is often painstaking, thankless and unglamorous — in bringing the Opposition parties together at various critical moments, whether it was in 1989, 1996, or 2004.        

Today, the sutradhar role will have to be played by those who are not seen as possible players themselves in 2019, like Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Sharad Pawar.

The Opposition is not bereft of such figures, but it is not moving together as a team, and authorised by the entire Opposition. Sitaram Yechury? Yashwant Sinha? Sharad Yadav? Ghulam Nabi Azad? Ashok Gehlot? There are several maharathis in the Congress, familiar with every trick in the book to take on an opponent, provided they decide to put their best foot forward.  

At the end of the day, it was the absence of proper management —and a killer instinct needed to take on the ‘new BJP’ — that proved to be the undoing of the Opposition in the election of the Deputy Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha.