Mayawati’s non-aligned movement, who will it help?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, January 15

Bahujan Samajwadi Party supremo Mayawati on her birthday today announced her decision to fly solo in the upcoming General Election.

So what does it mean, politically?

Is it disadvantage Congress and Samajwadi Party, advantage BJP or has she also opened the door to a third possibility—a non-BJP and non-Congress grouping, it remains to be seen.

Senior leaders, including Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav extended wishes to the BSP chief on her birthday.

A fact, however, also is that “Behanji’, as the senior Dalit leader is also referred to, did not figure among the prominent non-BJP faces invited by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar in the first “unity” conclave in Patna.

Also, at the anti-BJP INDIA meet at Mumbai when media informed Lalu Prasad Yadav that Mayawati had dubbed both INDIA and NDA “anti-Dalit” and “casteist”, the RJD supremo said “we haven’t invited her”.

Following reports that Akhilesh Yadav had opposed BSP’s induction in INDIA, Mayawati was quoted as saying that “no one should give statements about Opposition parties that are not part of the (INDIA) alliance, including the BSP. This is my advice to them. Because it can’t be predicted who will need who in the future. In such a scenario, these people will have to feel shameful at a later stage. In this, the Samajwadi Party is a living example.”

Meanwhile, observers point out that when Mayawati declared in 2014 that her party would contest elections on its own and fielded candidates in all 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, it was because she was confident of a mandate to form a government with support of secular parties.

However, though the party secured the third highest vote share, it did not win a single seat.

The relevance of being Mayawati

Her vote share is declining but no one can deny her relevance in Uttar Pradesh politics. 

BSP has influence in Uttar Pradesh and also some adjoining parts in neighbouring states.

Overall, in terms of Lok Sabha seats it is also the question of 80 seats in UP, a huge number by any account for any party.

However, whether going solo will impact the prospects of SP or Congress, observers say it will all depend upon “whether arithmetic or chemistry” comes into play in these elections. 

The BSP which had contested the 2019 general election in alliance with the SP won 10 seats while the SP won just five. In other words the gains were mostly that of BSP as the third ally—Rashtriya Lok Dal—did not even open its account

The BJP, which won 64 seats, was the main gainer.

But in terms of vote share BSP’s percentage dropped to around 3.63 % from 4.19 % in the 2019 general elections. 

Dipping vote share

In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Dalit-centric party managed to win just one of the 403 seats in the bipolar election between BJP and SP. 

Again the main gainer was the BJP

Though BSP managed to secure the third-highest vote share, gathering  around 12.9 % of the total votes polled, it was its lowest since 1993 Assembly polls when the party contested its first ever election in the state, winning around 64 of 167 seats it had fielded candidates on.

Observers say her support base is “shrinking” and it is not “dalits per se anymore but the sub-group jatavs that are supporting her now”.   

“It would be wrong to assume that all Dalits are backing Mayawati. For example, in 2017, it is said almost 90% of Jatav dalits backed BSP, or so claimed a post-poll survey. However by 2019 the number dropped to around 65%. It is believed that most of her core base had moved to BJP,” they add.

However, hindsight is perfect sight and it is also incorrect to draw inferences on the basis of post-poll surveys, which are also prone to margins of error.

The Muslim factor

To assume that SP and BSP are automatic default options for Muslims is also incorrect, as also proved by results by state civic polls last year.

After a dismal performance in the 2022 assembly election, Mayawati deduced that it was due to alienation of Muslim voters. Therefore playing the Muslim card, her party fielded several candidates from the community for mayor seats.

However, rather than consolidating behind one party against the BJP, in many cases Muslim voters chose to vote for candidates of their choice, including Independents and those from smaller parties like Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and in some case also BJP, according to reports.

“The fact is Mayawati has supported BJP on many occasions and the community is no longer sure that she will not go with the saffron party again. Voting for BSP is like voting for BJP, many believe. Voters are also smart enough to understand the attempts to divide votes,” say observers. 

The fact is most of her supporters are there not because they have no other choice but because they believe in BSP’s ideology, they add.

About The Author

Tribune Web Desk

The Tribune Web Desk brings you the latest news, analysis and insights from the region, India and around the world. Follow the Tribune Wed Desk for not just breaking news stories but wide-ranging coverage of events.

Join Whatsapp Channel of The Tribune for latest updates.

#BJP #Congress #Rajnath Singh