Campaign narrative favours incumbent, silent voter holds key

K V Prasad

Tribune News Service

NEW DELHI, MAY 17

With the long-drawn campaigning for elections to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha ending today, a broad narrative favours the incumbent.

There are at least five strands to it. One, PM Narendra Modi exhibited that his leadership was both strong and decisive; two, voters were prepared to ignore anger against the incumbent MP, opting for ‘Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar’; three, majority of the 18-19 age group backs Modi; four, women voters are with the BJP; and finally, even if the voter was in disagreement with any or all of the above, who is there in the Opposition to choose from?

These factors were also woven in the campaign theme of the ruling coalition led by the BJP. No wonder  the claims that the party would win some 300 seats.

The presumption is that these factors will convert into votes for the BJP, touching if not surpassing the 31 per cent votes in the 2014 Modi wave.

On the flip side, most reports also suggest no perceivable uniform wave and that the poll battle is essentially a contest between sets of national parties and allies on either side of the political divide, with regional outfits stronger in some states.

The Opposition is reposing faith in the discerning voter while unable to predict the way the silent voter turns.

The counter campaign by parties seeking to oust the BJP claims that PM Modi is not a strong leader since he preferred not to answer questions on failure to prevent a Pathankot or a Pulwama. The decision to demonetise high-value notes, it tried to project, resulted in a bad situation that turned worse after introduction of the GST.