A changed Uttar Pradesh

Neerja Chowdhury
Senior political commentator

The impressive kick-off of the BSP-SP-RLD gathbandhan’s campaign from Deoband in western UP only went to reinforce how polarised the state has become. It is divided not just on Hindu-Muslim lines, though that was not so overtly visible as in 2014. But, under the surface, it is there. It is polarised around Modi, between those who are for him and those opposed to him. In many ways, Battle 2019 revolves around Modi, who has emerged as the main ‘mudda’ in this election.

Then, there is polarisation along caste lines, with upper castes and the most backward castes, the second group comprising a large number of smaller communities that add up to a whopping 30% , as also  the non-Jatav Dalits, all arraigned solidly behind Modi. 

This time, the Muslims and the Jatavs (Mayawati’s caste and the large group among SCs), who are almost as alienated from the BJP as the Muslims, have joined hands. This combination is the kernel of opposition unity of the BSP-SP-RLD gathbandhan. 

Almost half the Jats in western UP, and most of the Yadavs in central, are also expected to throw in their lot with the gathbandhan. Last time, the Jat-Muslim conflict, which lay at the heart of the Muzaffarnagar clashes in 2013, had sent the Jats scurrying into the BJP’s arms. This time, they are divided. The younger and more aspirational Jats — and those who have been Hinduised — may still look at Modi. But thanks to the farmers’ distress, and most Jats are kisans, others are turning back to the RLD.

This makes the fight a real ‘takkar’. The eight seats that went to the polls on April 11 will set the tempo for the state. And UP will determine the outcome of the ‘mahasangram’ on May 23. Had the BJP won not 71 out of 80 seats in 2014, but, say, half that number, the story of the past five years might have been different. 

What was significant about the thousands who thronged the meeting in Deoband was their enthusiasm. They applauded at the punch lines and appeared as convinced about the gathbandhan, as are crowds who support Modi at BJP rallies. 

The gathbandhan would have been home and dry in most of the eight constituencies that went to the polls on Thursday by the sheer force of the Dalit-Muslim-Jat arithmetic in this area, but for the Congress contesting independently, and putting up strong candidates in some constituencies, like Saharanpur, Kairana and Bijnore. They are confusing the minority community which would have otherwise veered towards the mahagathbandhan. 

This explains why Mayawati was unambiguous in her appeal to the Muslims not to be carried away by the Congress, and she exhorted the community by name, not to let its vote get divided. As a result, she has invited scrutiny for violating the code of conduct. Her words showed that she was worried about the threat the Congress candidates were posing to the gathbandhan’s nominees. 

But, by overtly calling for a Muslim consolidation (which invariably creates a Hindu reaction), Mayawati could have played into the hands of the BJP, which would like the situation to polarise on the old Hindu-Muslim lines. That is why the more the Congress picks up in UP, the more triangular the contest, and greater the reason for the saffron party to smile.  

If gathbandhan candidate Fazlur Rehman polls 4 lakh votes in Saharanpur, and the Congress’ Imran Masood also gets an equal number, as he did in 2014, the BJP will win, even if it gets 4.5 lakh votes. This is exactly what had happened in 2014.  

This time, Masood, who also has a hold in some neighbouring constituencies, is being helped by the youthful Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad, head of the Bhim Sena. He has a hold among young Jatavs, though his ability to get votes transferred is untested. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had called on him, not long ago, when Mayawati determinedly kept the Congress at bay. 

Interestingly, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka cancelled their appearance at the Congress rally in Saharanpur, a day after the Deoband meet, ostensibly because of bad weather, but it is possible that they saw the damage being done to the gathbandhan. But sometimes it is difficult to dismount a tiger, and the meeting organised by Masood was attended by a large number.   

Mayawati took a giant leap forward when she decided to join hands with a party she had blamed for attacking her in the infamous ‘guesthouse kaand’ in Lucknow in 1995, which was a traumatic experience for her. What is more, she is going to campaign for her arch opponent Mulayam Singh Yadav in his constituency. Akhilesh Yadav also showed his marathon runner streak by aligning with a leader known for her maverick ways. 

But the BSP chief has not been able to display that kind of generosity towards the Congress. Fearful of the loss of her Dalit base, she has refused to include the grand old party in the gathbandhan, which would have given the alliance a national flavour. 

The Congress response — of fighting in all 80 seats — showed that it remains confused about its primary goal. To defeat Modi or try to revive the party first? The Congress could have contested in a handful of seats where it was strong and left the rest for the gathbandhan, even without an alliance.

The opposition parties know that ‘unity’ was their only weapon to defeat a formidable opponent like Modi, whose Teflon effect has not worn off. The BJP, after all, had stooped to conquer its restive allies. 

Unity entails a readiness to give and take, not to stand on ceremony, or to make the loss of a seat here or there a matter of prestige. The parties have travelled some distance but not gone the whole way, and this is bound to reflect in the 2019 polls in UP.