Wooing Bihar’s voters with free vaccine, jobs

From being written off as a non-starter in the beginning, Tejashwi Yadav is being able to set the agenda. His promise of giving 10 lakh government jobs if elected CM struck a chord in a state with a young population and the most depressing figures of unemployment. The BJP first asked where Tejashwi would get the resources to fulfil such a promise and then announced it would generate ‘employment’ for 19 lakh people.

AWAITED: The Bihar verdict will tell whether parties birthed in the Mandal era, such as the RJD, can still bounce back in the face of the money, might and machinery of the BJP.

Saba Naqvi

Senior Journalist

It’s a reflection on the deep cynicism with which most political parties approach elections that India’s pre-eminent party, the BJP, has offered free Covid vaccine for all the people of Bihar in its manifesto for the poll-bound state.

A state with endemic poverty, hunger and unemployment, besides one of the worst public health systems in the country, is now being promised a vaccine that is yet to come into existence. One could say that it’s a give-them-cake-if-they-don’t-have-bread statement in the context of Bihar, besides being blatantly cynical since all Indians should be offered a vaccine (if and when it comes into existence), not just those in states that are having elections.

But the truth is that there is unlikely to be a revolution in Bihar, although there is growing excitement about the RJD’s CM face, the 30-year-old Tejashwi Yadav. Some trends have also become clear by now. First, anti-incumbency appears to be directed at Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and not the BJP’s national leadership per se. There is a disconnect between governance issues and the persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has actually presided over a shrinking economy, civil unrest and poor decisions, such as announcing the most stringent lockdown in the world at four hours’ notice.

The attempt through the BJP’s social media army and a pliant television media to disconnect the PM from all the troubles in the earthly realm appears to have succeeded and this election result will show us to what extent. So, at this point, within the ruling NDA, the BJP seems better poised to win more seats than the JD (U) does.

The post-election game in Bihar, therefore, remains open if Nitish falters badly. In that event, one should not rule out the possibility of the BJP seeking to form a government on its own and even absorbing members of the JD(U) minus Nitish. If the JD (U) performs way below its alliance partner, the question of chief ministership would naturally open up again. The BJP’s Deputy Chief Minister in Bihar, Sushil Modi, is too closely associated with Nitish and in the event of a jolt, a CM face would come from another faction of the national party’s state unit that has been arguing and strategising for the party going it alone.

The cat’s paw in the BJP’s strategy in Bihar is clearly LJP’s Chirag Paswan, who, too, is drawing decent crowds. It is only after the first phase of voting is over on October 28 that it will become clear whether the BJP-RSS’s formidable cadre and election machinery is transferring support to the LJP or the JD(U) (the Paswan-led party has put up candidates against Nitish Kumar, but not the BJP). Nitish Kumar's desperation was on display at the rallies addressed by PM Modi, where the three-term Chief Minister clearly seemed dependent on the individual he once so fiercely opposed. Nitish has clearly bent the knee for now and the feedback after the first phase of voting will determine his strategies for the second and third phases that follow on November 3 and 7 (results will be declared on November 10). He is facing a challenge both outside and inside the NDA.

But the equations within the NDA are part of the story in Bihar. The other is the growing momentum to the campaign of Tejashwi Yadav. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son has, at the very least, arrived as a campaigner in this election and it is quite likely that the RJD could end this election with the largest vote share among parties, although it is debatable whether they could convert all the support into seats as the other side appears to have better coordination and resources. Plus, it is not clear whether the RJD’s partner, the Congress, will have a good strike rate on its seats (the Congress has been given 70 seats while the RJD has 144 seats and the Left parties contest on 29).

From being written off as a non-starter in the beginning of the election process, Tejashwi is actually being able to set the agenda. His promise of giving 10 lakh government jobs as soon as he is elected CM, undoubtedly, struck a chord in a state with a young population and the most depressing figures of unemployment. The BJP first responded by asking where Tejashwi would get the resources to fulfil such a promise and then announced in its manifesto that it would generate ‘employment’ for 19 lakh people. The party with more resources than any other player in the field was being reactive.

Since its impressive victory in the 2019 General Election, the BJP has not been able to repeat the performance in the states that had elections subsequently. It formed the government with a regional party in Haryana, it lost an ally and a chance to share power in Maharashtra, and was squarely defeated in Delhi. Most relevant to Bihar, however, would be the defeat of the ruling BJP in December 2019 in Jharkhand (that was carved out of Bihar) to the alliance of the JMM-Congress-RJD.

There is, however, an argument that the lockdown, the huge shrinking of the Indian economy and the Covid scare have disabled other parties, while the BJP may have become comparatively stronger and more authoritarian in the past year.

The Bihar verdict will answer several questions, such as the PM’s ratings and whether parties birthed in the Mandal era still have the capacity to bounce back and remain relevant in the face of the money, might and machinery that the BJP now throws into every election.