No winner: Game of permutations begins

Arun Joshi

Tribune news service

Jammu, December 23

Upsetting all calculations, the results of the 12th Assembly polls have brought Jammu and Kashmir to a precipice where no single party is close to the numbers of forming the government on its own.

It has thrown such a fractured mandate that threatens the existing political balance and the state’s relationship with rest of the country.

This verdict has become an albatross around the neck of each of the two major parties, the PDP in Kashmir and the BJP in the Jammu region.

Sitting on the fence are the Congress and the NC. Both parties say the ball is in the court of the PDP and the BJP.

The regional divide is not visible only in numbers, but in their agendas as well. Any future combination will be toxic unless peppered with maturity and political and religious balance.

The PDP with 28 seats is the single largest party and all faces are Muslims. Among the BJP’s 25 winners, only one is a Muslim and all others Hindus. All BJP winners are from the Jammu region.

Most Congress candidates who made it across the finishing line are Muslims. The NC has 13 Muslim and two Hindu winners. At this moment, the parties are reluctant to open their cards for obvious reasons.

“We are not in haste. We will wait and partner only if the alliance is based on the acceptance and pursuance of our agenda of good governance and other issues,” said PDP president Mehbooba Mufti.

She set at rest speculation that her party, despite having emerged as the single largest party, would stake claim to form the government.

It is a sheer coincidence that the NC with 28 seats in the 2008 results staked the claim after seeking an alliance with the Congress.

The parties have started working on permutations and combinations, but a disturbing fact is that all parties want to be in the government and none wants to take an initiative.

The BJP has kept all its options open. It can form the government on its own, form the government with the help of other parties or offer outside support.

“For us, all options are open,” said BJP national president Amit Shah. He dodged questions on core agenda issues of the party like Article 370 and a uniform civil code.

The BJP has made it to the biggest-ever tally in the Assembly elections by winning 25 seats, more than double than its tally in 2008.

It demolished some bastions of Muslims like Doda, Kishtwar and Bhaderwah, which were for long considered as strongholds of the Congress and the NC.

This time, the NC led by Omar Abdullah recorded its worst-ever performance in its electoral history. It is keeping everyone guessing even as it is clear that it has made all moves to stay in power.

It has sent feelers to the BJP, the party with which Omar and his father Farooq Abdullah had good relations during the first NDA tenure.

“I am not calling anyone and if someone calls, I will talk,” Omar is stating. He is even putting the ball in the court of his arch-rival Mufti Mohammad Sayeed.

Omar is saying, “If he calls, I will consider (supporting the PDP).” He told this to television channels after declaring that government formation was the responsibility of the PDP and the BJP.

His claim on Monday that the NC would have no alliance with the BJP was responded diplomatically by Shah, who said, “Whatever Omar Abdullah says is not always correct.”

The real danger is that confrontationist forces have scored a majority from either of the two major regions, which are communally and regionally sensitive.