Keep it riot-free

By choosing Saharanpur as a venue of his rally and focusing his speech on farmers and the poor, Prime Minister Modi has virtually launched the BJP's poll campaign for the UP assembly, still almost a year away. The simultaneous arrest of a Bajrang Dal leader for organising self-defence training to right-wing youth in Ayodhya — and its justification by Governor Ram Naik — has revived fears of a repetition of the Muzaffarnagar riots. Since stakes are very high for the BJP leadership, the party may be tempted to replay its 2014 poll strategy which helped it win 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. Polarising tactics helped the party secure such a massive mandate which eluded it even during the Ram Janmabhoomi/Babri Masjid controversy.  

The strategy is clear and simple: talk development, practise communalism. ‘Chanakya’ Amit Shah is back in the game. Also clear is the BJP’s caste focus. It chose a Dalit face, Keshav Prasad Mauriya, as the UP party chief. It needs to consolidate upper caste votes. It may not be easy now to have right caste combinations which happened during the Kalyan Singh regime. In majoritarian politics, however, sharpening the communal divide, a revival of the Ram Mandir controversy and an anti-Muslim agenda can prove “helpful”. 

The self-congratulatory celebrations apart, ground realities in UP are not all that propitious. Here the CM face and caste engineering will play a major role. Modi’s vikas talk may be lapped up by TV talk show watching urban India, villagers have to grapple daily with basic survival issues. The BJP is ideologically and organisationally weak in villages. Out of the total 403 assembly constituencies in the state, some 300 have rural voters. In the last polls it got only 80 seats. The BJP is without the benefit of a strong CM candidate. In assembly elections in the state BJP has consistently under-performed. Notwithstanding Modi’s declaration that “I’m a UP-wala”, he remains an outsider. The BJP still is an urban party. Hence, the BJP should not rule out another Shining India-type surprise in 2017.