Maharashtra: What next for BJP after losing face and a big state

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, November 26

In Maharashtra, where there has been a new surprise, a new turn every hour it is hard to foretell what will happen next. 

But as things stand today the BJP appears to have lost not just a big state but also face—something that may have implications for it in other parts of the country, including Karnataka where crucial bypolls are slated and on which the future BS Yediyurappa government is hinged and the upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand.

Incidentally, Jharkhand is one of the “big states” that the BJP currently holds, apart from Karnataka, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Despite the apparent setback, top sources in the BJP say “we have not given up”. In other words they are hoping for a “Karnataka like situation to “soon develop in Maharashtra”. To a question on whether they had anticipated what happened today, the senior BJP leader said: “Anything can happen (in politics). We took the decision, the situation was such…..everything will be good.”

But murmurs have started in corridors of power over “wrong distribution of tickets in Maharashtra, precedence to outsiders from the NCP and the Congress”, etc. “This is not how the expansion of the party should be happening” is also being said. 

The emergence of NCP supremo Sharad Pawar at the national scene as the new “Renaissance Man” against BJP’s “Chanakya” Amit Shah is something the BJP had neither anticipated nor bargained for. The BJP lost the fight in the “regional pride” pitch of the NCP and the Shiv Sena—“Gujaratis (Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah) trying to control things in Maharashtra”—and the same can be used in other parts as well.

The fact is the BJP with 105 seats rejected the power-sharing offer of the Sena with 56 seats, forcing it to turn to its arch-rivals NCP (54 seats) and Congress (44 seats). Today it is cutting a rather lonely figure in the state that sends as many as 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Analysts say had it not been for NCP and Congress turncoats, the saffron party would have won much less. There are talks about how the “ED probe” played a big role in Pawar supporting Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackaray to take on the “might of Modi-Shah”.

Though the BJP believes the situation between Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress “will not last” but the saffron party may have much more to worry if they actually mange to pull through in Maharashtra—the state that sends second largest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh (80).

While the BJP waits for the ‘opportunistic alliance’ to break, analysts believe the man behind the almost impossible effort—Sharad Pawar—will ensure that the “Maha Vikas Aghadi” not just works in Maharashtra but also acts as a template for alliances across the country. There are also speculations about Pawar becoming a pan-India rallying point.

Forced into a corner in Maharashtra, the BJP is being followed closely by NDA allies some of whom are believed to be “upset” with the “treatment”. There is another aspect, the “Hindutva” vote base of the Sena and the BJP. The Congress and the NCP coming with “saffron hued” Sena may work in the favour of the two parties looking for ways to “better prospects among those who favour the BJP”. 

Whether Sena will use Maharashtra success to boost prospects in other parts of the country remains to be seen.

Next up: Karnataka bypolls 

Bypolls to 15 of the Karnataka Assembly seats left vacant by the disqualifications will be held in December. The BJP has the support of 106 MLAs in the 224-member Assembly, including one independent. The opposition JDS-Congress has 101 MLAs. BJP needs to get at least six to remain relevant in the state that witnessed dramatic turn of event a few months back.