Punjab sees 52K ‘excess’ deaths during Covid

Tribune News Service

Chandigarh, July 31

Punjab saw 52,656 “excess” deaths during the pandemic as compared to the previous years. A significant number of these was related to Covid-19. The fact came to the fore in the latest report prepared by the state government.

The report, prepared on the basis of the Civil Registration System, suggested “excess” deaths could be 2.8 times the reported Covid deaths. However, the state said the ratio was lower in comparison to other states from where data had been reported in the media.

On the basis of the average number of deaths registered during 2016 to 2019, 2,81,517 fatalities were expected between March 2020 and June 2021. However, the registered deaths in Punjab during the period stood at 3,34,173, pointing to 52,656 “excess” fatalities, indicating a 18.7% rise during the pandemic months.

Officially, the state has reported 16,052 Covid-related deaths between March 2020 and June 2021. Another important fact that established that a significant number of the “excess” deaths was due to Covid was the monthly trend of deaths registered in the Civil Registration System of Punjab.

A jump was seen from May to December 2020, with an even sharper rise from March to May, 2021. These were the months when people were dying in large numbers due to Covid. About 30.5% of these deaths had been reported among confirmed Covid cases in Punjab. One reason for the low percentage of Covid deaths in Punjab could be attributed to immediate or delayed mortality from undocumented Covid-19 or non-Covid deaths secondary to the pandemic, such as from delayed care or behavioural health crises, the report stated.

“Covid death reporting was better in Punjab compared to other states, except Kerala from where data has been reported in the media. Punjab is the first state that has officially reported transparently “excess” deaths due to pandemic conditions,” said Dr Rajesh Kumar, former head of PGI’s School of Public Health. The first Covid-related death in the state was reported from SBS Nagar on March 19.

18.7% jump witnessed

3,34,173 Registered deaths from March 2020-June 2021

2,81,517 Expected fatalities in state during the period

52,656 ‘Excess’ deaths, suggesting 18.7% rise during pandemic

16,052 Covid-related deaths reported officially by state

Ratio lower than other states

Only Kerala has reported ‘excess’ deaths lower than Punjab. Karnataka, TN, MP and AP have seen higher levels. ‘Excess’ deaths in Haryana were 7.3 times, double the Punjab figure.

Testing, diagnosis capacity key

• Health system’s capacity to test and diagnose Covid-19 and responsiveness to the health crisis can lead to underreporting of Covid cases and deaths
• A multi-country study recently reported that greater the difference in ‘excess’ mortality and Covid deaths, lower is the testing capacity of the country
• A recent study estimated 34 to 49 lakh ‘excess’ mortality in India because of pandemic, which is 10 times the declared confirmed mortality due to Covid

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